By Aminu Abdullahi Gambo Guyuk
This is the bitter reality that many may not like to hear but the truth is quite different from fiction, and it must be told the way it should be, for posterity purposes.
Weather we like it or not, the number of Governors a particular Political party has, determine it's strength in winning the presidential election.
Back then in 2015 when former President Goodluck Jonathan of the People's Democratic Party (PDP) lost to the opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) and the incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari, the reality was that Jonathan lost the election, not on the basis of not being popular, but on the basis that he lacked the majority of the Governors then.
The APC defeated President Jonathan and his party, PDP in 2015 with the majority of 22 States Governors or so and with the support of five (5) PDP State Governors of Kano, Rivers, Adamawa, Kwara and the Sokoto State that worked against him and subsequently defected to the opposition APC then.
Moreover, with the way PDP is recklessly handling the Presidential bid of Atiku Abubakar (Wazirin Adamawa) and the bright chances of the Labour Party's Presidential Candidate, Mr Peter Obi, in the South East and across the country, can someone please tell me what magic the PDP and Atiku Abubakar can play with probably 12 State Governors to win the presidency, come 2023?
Another factor is the Rabiu Kwankwaso's factor, which others see as a major setback to the ruling APC in the North West, and which I saw on the contrary because the political popularity of Kwankwaso can only be limited to Kano State. It will never pass even the neighboring Jigawa State which has Muhammadu Badaru Abubakar, an APC Governor who defeated former Governor Sule Lamido two times.
We will love, more than anything else, that Alhaji Atiku Abubakar wins the presidency in 2023 and that power shifts to the North-Eastern part of Nigeria, but the reality and danger on the ground can not be escaped.
How does someone expect us (PDP) to win the 2023 presidency with only 12 Governors out of 36, with the loyalty of some of the 12 Governors of the PDP still in doubt?
How could a party like the PDP or someone position himself in a room or in an enclosed area and be expecting that such party or individual will win the presidency so easily in 2023? Politics is all about calculation and analysis!
If we believe that Governors Fintiri and Darius of Adamawa and Taraba states would have the strength and the political courage to deliver their states for PDP and Atiku just because they are seating PDP Governors, it is like believing that Governors Inuwa Yahaya and Zulum have same ability and courage to deliver Gombe and Borno States for the APC and Tinubu!
Let us carefully observe and analyze the six (6) geo-political zones of Nigeria below and attempt to predict the chances of the PDP:
NORTH WEST: 7 STATES: PDP has only one: Sokoto
APC has 6 STATES:
- Kano
- Kaduna
- Katsina
- Zamfara
- Kebbi
- Jigawa
NORTH EAST 6 STATES: PDP has 3
- Adamawa
- Taraba
- Bauchi
APC has 3
- Borno
- Yobe
- Gombe
NORTH CENTRAL 6 STATES;
PDP has Only one
- Benue State
APC has 5
- Plateau
- Kogi
- Nasarawa
- Kwara
- Niger
SOUTH WEST 6 STATES; PDP has One
- Oyo
APC have 5
- Lagos
- Ogun
- Osun
- Ondo
- Ekiti
SOUTH~ SOUTH 6 STATES; APC has only one
- Cross River
PDP has 5
- Akwa- Ibom
- Bayelsa
- Delta
- Edo~ UNCERTAIN
- Rivers~ UNCERTAIN
SOUTH EAST 5 STATES: APC has 2
- Imo
- Ebonyi
PDP has 2
- Abia
- Enugu
APGA has one
- Anambra
However, going through the six geo-political zones, we must have to understand that APC has the majority of (23 State Governors), while PDP has (12 State Governors) and APGA has only one state governor, and therefore making up the 36 States.
I have not seen any magic or any magician that would make the PDP win the presidency in 2023, except if it is destined to happen by the Supreme God Almighty, that for the first time, a political party with minority Governors would win the presidency in an election.
But in spite of all this, we have the firm belief that the Almighty Allah S.w.t have the power to make the impossible possible. So, our hope and faith are not lost, afterall!
...Aminu Abdullahi Gambo Guyuk is a political analyst. NNL.
